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Why Bayh's leaving the Senate - a differing view

Dustin Blythe

If there is an secondary motive in Bayh's maneuver and subsequent PR campaign (The View?  Really?), I would argue that it is to set up a run for Governor in 2012, not President. 

To challenge Barack Obama in the 2012 Democratic primary, even a weakened Barack Obama, would be political suicide for Bayh.  Conspiracy theorists might look for a "Johnson statement" from Obama ("I shall not seek, nor will I accept, my Party's nomination for another term as your President"), which would blow 2012 wide open, but I doubt it.

At first blush another run for Governor would seem like a step down, but look at it this way.  Bayh left the Governor's office with almost an 80% approval rating and a budget surplus.  In the minds of many Indiana Democrats ( and certainly after Mitch Daniels), there is a tremendous amount of goodwill and nostalgia for Evan Bayh as Governor.  While trying to recreate those good times would be a huge gamble politically, but if he could do so, it would set him up for what will certainly be a wide open field in 2016.  Bayh will be 60 years old, and with his almost fanatic jogging regimen, he should be in excellent physical shape. 

Bayh would certainly be in a better position to distinguish himself as Governor versus as a member of the Senate, counterintuitive as that may seem.  Also, what more intriguing angle could there be than someone who left the Senate, regains his old Gubernatorial seat, (theoretically) rejuventates Indiana, and decides to "follow Barack Obama and continue the work of bringing America together"? 

 

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Why Bayh's leaving the Senate

Don Wheeler

In his New York Times OpEd entitled "Why I'm leaving the Senate",  Senator Evan Bayh certainly gave us the Full Monty about what he dislikes about the institution, but precious little about why he's leaving - unless he thinks its not worth saving.

But it didn't sound that way to me.  It sounded a lot like he thought that the problems ought to be solved.  In fact, he listed several changes which would improve things and all of them lie within the authority of the august body he is leaving.  Apparently these things are worth doing, but not worth his effort.  That's an awfully tricky position to take.

To wit:  these folks have some observations put to music.  They are a bit crude at times (note the empty bottles motif) but generally on point.



Mr. Bayh even received less than cordial treatment on The View

"I hate to say it, but you sound like Sarah Palin right now," Joy Behar said, accusing the senator of quitting his job before his work was done.

There may be something else at work here.  To use the vernacular of our friendly fake consultant, perhaps we should be anticipating the beta version of the Bayh 2012.  fc has documented the evolution of past political models - their triumphs and setbacks - it's not beyond the realm of possibility he will have another opportunity.

Over the last few months Senator Bayh has consistently positioned himself as a "voice of caution" to most of President Obama's and the Democratic Caucus' proposals for sweeping reform and aggressive stimuli.  It's true he voted in favor of the Senate version of health care reform.  But that measure had most of the good stuff stripped out of it by that point.  Bayh even voted against increasing the federal debt ceiling - knowing full well that if his side prevailed the government would have to shut down.  He has consistently practiced right flanking maneuvers on a President who can most fairly be characterized as a raging moderate.  Triangulation, anyone?

Add in his brief Presidential run in 2008, Veep considerations, and a curious statement he's made in interviews that he's "better suited as an executive than a legislator", and one might reasonably regard with skepticism his claim that he will not run for President in 2012.